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An NFC South matchup kicks off NFL Week 15 as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 'Thursday Night Football'. Both squads are struggling as Atlanta has lost seven of its last eight, while Tampa has dropped three of four. The Falcons are coming off a 37-9 defeat to Seattle that eliminated Atlanta from postseason contention. The Bucs, meanwhile, were just upset by New Orleans, 24-20, on Sunday. This rivalry is as even as could be as the teams have split their 64 all-time matchups, 32-32.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla. The Bucs won their Week 1 meeting, 23-20, on the road. Tampa Bay is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings in the latest Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds, while the over/under for total points is 44.5. Before making any Buccaneers vs. Falcons picks, make sure to check out the 'Thursday Night Football' predictions from SportsLine NFL expert Larry Hartstein.

New users can target the DraftKings promo code, which offers $200 in bonus bets if your bet wins, on picks like Bijan Robinson going Over 76.5 rushing yards yards. Bet it at DraftKings right here:

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Hartstein tied for 52nd place (out of 1,598 entries) in the 2022 Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest, going 53-34-3 ATS. He is coming off a down 2024 NFL season at SportsLine that puts him at 967-821 all-time on NFL sides and props (plus 13.8 units), including 593-518 ATS. Entering the 2025-26 season, he has been profitable in five of six seasons, going 659-564 ATS (plus $3,556 for $100 players).

In addition, Hartstein has gone 21-11-2 on his last 34 picks involving the Falcons, returning well over $800. Anybody following his NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. 

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Falcons vs. Buccaneers and just locked in his picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Buccaneers vs. Falcons:

Falcons vs. Buccaneers spread

Tampa -4.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Falcons vs. Buccaneers over/under

44.5 points

Falcons vs. Buccaneers money line 

Buccaneers -230, Falcons +189

Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks

See picks at SportsLine

Falcons vs. Buccaneers streaming 

Amazon Prime

Why the Falcons can cover

The Falcons have covered in each of their last three tips to Tampa, and Atlanta is 5-2 ATS overall over these teams' last seven matchups. Atlanta's pass rush has come on strong as of late, averaging 4.5 sacks over the last six games, which is also notable in terms of Atlanta covering as the Bucs are 2-5 ATS when Baker Mayfield is sacked multiple times in a game this season. Speaking of Mayfield, his struggles are a big reason for Tampa's recent woes as he has under 200 yards in four straight games, with more turnovers (five) than passing touchdowns (four) over that stretch. See which team to back at SportsLine, and bet Mayfield to go Under at DraftKings here:

Why the Buccaneers can cover

Tampa's defense can take away what Atlanta does best on offense, and that's running the ball. The Bucs have the No. 8 run defense and have contained Bijan Robinson, as he's averaged just 45.5 rushing yards, at under 4.0 yards per carry, over his last four versus Tampa. There's also the motivation factor in this game, as Tampa is tied with Carolina for the NFC South lead, so it has plenty to play for. Meanwhile, the Falcons were eliminated from any postseason possibility last week, making it unlikely the team will rush Drake London (knee) back to the field after missing the last three games. That would make Atlanta's offense even easier to contain as he had more catches (8) than all other Falcons' wideouts combined (6) in their Week 1 loss to Tampa. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make Bucs vs. Falcons picks

Hartstein has analyzed Falcons vs. Bucs from every angle and he's leaning Under on the point total. He has also discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine, and you can bet the Under at DraftKings:

Who wins Bucs vs. Falcons, and what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Bucs spread you need to jump on, all from the expert that is 21-11-2 on his last 34 Atlanta picks, and find out.